But if primary voters start thinking about Trump, the calculus could change. President Biden's approval rating has hit a new low of 36 percent, and inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years. The GOP can coast to victory in November on those issues. " Republicans would rather have the conversation be about the economy, inflation, and a referendum on Biden," political consultant Carly Cooperman told The Guardian. This is exactly what many in the party are afraid of. As presumptive nominee, he'd also wield a much bigger stick to flog any GOP office-seekers who stepped out of line. It might also make the Justice Department more hesitant to pursue criminal charges against him and "strengthen his argument that other criminal investigations against him in New York and Georgia are politically motivated," The Guardian suggests.Īnd finally, it would turn the 2022 midterms into a referendum on Trump, forcing candidates across the country to grapple forthrightly with his stolen election claims. According to CBS News, "people close to Trump said he feels he is not being defended well by Republicans." Declaring a presidential bid would focus media attention on the former president, giving him a bigger megaphone with which to defend himself. Trump reportedly plans to launch his campaign from Florida in order to overshadow DeSantis. One benefit of an early announcement could be to take the wind out of the sails of potential challengers, who benefit from speculation that Trump might not run. What effect might an early announcement have? Delaney's announcement failed to raise his national profile significantly, and his presidential bid went nowhere. According to FiveThirtyEight, this was the earliest declaration by a major candidate in at least 45 years. John Delaney (D-Md.) announced he was running for president in the 2020 election on July 28, 2017, just six months into Trump's presidency and 466 days before the 2018 midterms. Trump could declare his 2024 presidential campaign this summer - maybe even this month. Ron DeSantis, who beat Trump in a recent New Hampshire primary poll, is also seen as a major threat. Potential primary challengers include former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former New Jersey Gov. Of the other five, only Roosevelt came anywhere close, finishing in a distant second with 88 electoral votes to Woodrow Wilson's 435.Įven if Trump does run, there's a chance he might not make it to the general election. Grant, Grover Cleveland, Theodore Roosevelt, and Herbert Hoover all campaigned to return to the White House. Former Presidents Martin Van Buren, Millard Fillmore, Ulysses S. history to attempt a comeback after leaving office. If Trump runs in 2024, he would be the seventh president in U.S. As early as September 2021, a senior Trump 2020 campaign adviser put the odds of Trump running a third time at "somewhere between 99 and 100 percent" based on his recent conversations with the former president.
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